Supply vs. Deadly Run Analysis

sigmaphi465

I'd thought I'd apply some analysis to the debated topic of whether to go on deadly runs or supply runs when you are trying to grind for cans. There are some discussions asserting that supply runs are never worth the gas because you can get more golden and silver tickets on the deadly runs. I wasn't convinced that the increase in tickets could overcome the guaranteed mission bonus, so I recorded every crate for the past few days and applied some simple analysis. The assumptions and constants are detailed in the input file. If you have any questions, fire away!

Bottom line: it is very clear that if I want to grind for cans, supply missions are significantly more profitable than deadly.

Input File with detailed crate awards:


Analysis of results:

SpacemanSpiff

Hey man, thanks for putting that "bottom-line" summary there, for people with pea-sized brains such as myself.

To me, that complex chart just looks like: F + T + fairy-dust = magic-beans.

So I appreciate the bottom-line. Nice, and thanks!

SlickRick

@sigmaphi465

Nice work...you would get along well with @OneLessTitan

I only do XP side missions anymore (have no need for supplies...only XP)...I can guarantee the XP gained from them is much better than doing deadlies...but like always it just comes down to what you're looking for!!

Thanks again for the analysis!!

lmfgunnut

@sigmaphi465 I am not sure who was giving advice that deadly missions were better for supplies, BUT, BUT (had to put that twice for emphasis) there is very little reason to ever push the collection of supplies. They will come so much faster than any other needed currency in the game that chasing after them is of little value.

XP is the limited resource in the game (tents provide almost nothing)(farm plots provide tons) so by your own analysis, you've proven that supply runs are garbage compared to deadly.

I'd really be interested in seeing your analyst of Deadly vs XP runs. Which has better xp and is the edge mollified by increases in other rewards?

At any rate, good job on the collection and analysis. I'm sure there are plenty people here that agree that chasing supplies is a worthwhile endeavor, so your data is certainly helpful.

Sipher07

This is great @sigmaphi465
I should hire you as an analyst lol

blynknz

Nice work

Boruto

Excellent work.
I hardly do any supply missions because I get supplies fast from either XP or deadly missions.
So I'm also very interested in analysis of XP vs deadly as mentioned by @lmfgunnut.

sigmaphi465

These are very encouraging words, thanks everyone! I would have analyzed Xp vs. deadly, but I am maxed out on Xp at the moment. Some of you are are probably like "what?!", but I am only level 35, so time and supplies are my limiting factor. I have an array of level 12 survivors with all maxed out gear, but I have to upgrade every building and council before I move on to the next phase. Perhaps you may have guessed that I am in the "zero dollars spent" club. No judgement here, but I am trying to play purely with time and patience. Many say it can't be done. Perhaps they are right, but I am going to give it a shot.

I am enjoying my time at a lower level and loving the journey. Happy hunting, everyone!

SmittY

Thank you fot the careful fact founded analysis @sigmaphi465. I can also tell you that the deadly missions run in batches weeks at a time. I used to think it was odd that patterns were consistent two weeks and then changed, that maybe jamming me up with rare gear was nefarious. Now I think its more where I am at at player survi or level that dictates some equipment or resource pulls. Like after i spend all my tomatoes the game keeps dropping many more.

DangerB

Thanks for the detail, I love playing with geeks that crunch the numbers. No ill meaning behind that, I is geek as well. Now you can use the deadlie vs. XP runs and build a nice pivot table and you can summarize in a nice power point presentation.

I don't buy 7500 tg crates, only massive amounts of 500, that could be a good test as well.

I love the XP runs because I can farm those without fear. But on occasion I will do only deadlies if I am looking for choice gear. To me that is the best way (usually on 1 or 5 min gas weekends). Or if I have video clips to burn. I think my unofficial numbers are 1 nice gold gear every 50-60ish missions. Or 1-3 on a weekend of farming deadlies.

Also my experience the 500 tg crates give me mostly green gear that matches my highest dude, blue is usually 1 level below sometimes equal, and gold mostly -2 to -1 never got gold gear equal to my dudes level, either that is rng, or my luck. But I have exchanged close to half a mill in crates ( thank you Lucille week)

OneLessTitan

Here's my details of what I've gotten in reward crates, for all 4 types of missions: Deadly, Guild, Food, XP

https://twdnomansland.wordpress.com/crate-rewards/

lmfgunnut

@OneLessTitan they need to put you on payroll. At the very least cover your hosting fees.

Awesome collection and presentation.

sigmaphi465

@OneLessTitan - Wow! Nice work! Great sample sizes and dedication to the analysis. I will be frequenting your page, no doubt!

BttlOpener

Teeceezy said:
Change that was missing from the What's New text: Deadly Exploration missions have been removed and replaced with normal missions.

Unfortunately, this thread might be dead. It might help everyone to let the NG staff know
that deadly explorations need to stay in the game.

Sipher07

Do normal have less gold/silver tickets or just less gold/silver tickets w weapons but poetically more gold/silver with XP and tomato?