Jackpot problem

Adamski316 · January 2020

Since this Jackpot happens to have guaranteed legendary gear in gold crates, I decided, for the first time to do exclusively Gear Harvest missions. 250 gas tanks, got me 11 silver jackpots, and still, no gold. If the odds at gold jackpot is 5%, than I must be very unlucky, or there is a programing error with the Gear Harvest mission. I will stick to it hoping for at least one gold jackpot. I will update my results later

TWDaddiction · January 2020

It’s all up and down. I’ve gone more then that without gold, and I’ve gone back to back to back before. Odds don’t tend to make sense very often lol

Grady · January 2020

Adamski316 said:
Since this Jackpot happens to have guaranteed legendary gear in gold crates, I decided, for the first time to do exclusively Gear Harvest missions. 250 gas tanks, got me 11 silver jackpots, and still, no gold. If the odds at gold jackpot is 5%, than I must be very unlucky, or there is a programing error with the Gear Harvest mission. I will stick to it hoping for at least one gold jackpot. I will update my results later

It takes 5 gas per mission, so having 250 gas was enough for 50 missions.
The chance of you not getting any gold jackpot is 95%^50 = 7.7%

Billbam · January 2020

To me it has always seemed scavenger missions gave less gold jackpots. I have farmed some tomatoes this weekend and not a single gold and only 1 silver. On the challenge rewards seems like I get them fairly regularly and that is a much smaller sample.

ATLAS-Z · January 2020

@TWDaddiction are you doing tomatoes scavenge or gear?

TWDaddiction · January 2020

> @ATLAS-Z said:
> @TWDaddiction are you doing tomatoes scavenge or gear?

I have a process lol. I do xp til I’m almost full, then tomatoes. but I do throw in some gear every so often when I’m feeling lucky.

Drunken · January 2020

I’m 2200 stars or so 1 gold jackpot and about 50 scavenge missions 0 jackpots

Adamski316 · January 2020

So after spending 400 gas, I hit 2 gold and 17 silver jackpots. It is something, but surely, not close to the odds of 5% of stricking gold JP.

Spiked · January 2020

It’s called variance...

Just because you have a 5% chance doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to hit 5 times in 100 tries.. it means you will average 5 times per 100 over a large data set.

It’s not a “problem”

ShadowWalker · January 2020

> @Spiked said:
> It’s called variance...
>
> Just because you have a 5% chance doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to hit 5 times in 100 tries.. it means you will average 5 times per 100 over a large data set.
>
> It’s not a “problem”

Get out of here with your facts and reason.

fretje · January 2020

Spiked said:
It’s called variance...

Just because you have a 5% chance doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to hit 5 times in 100 tries.. it means you will average 5 times per 100 over a large data set.

It’s not a “problem”

Yes, you are right, but this also means that with a sufficiently large dataset, the variance should be close to 0, which is definitely not the case here (and with other odds-based stuff in the game)...

I'm telling ya, their RNG is broken.

(I haven't got a single gold jackpot yet this time, and I've been playing lots of missions!)

Spiked · January 2020

fretje said:

Yes, you are right, but this also means that with a sufficiently large dataset, the variance should be close to 0, which is definitely not the case here (and with other odds-based stuff in the game)...

I'm telling ya, their RNG is broken.

(I haven't got a single gold jackpot yet this time, and I've been playing lots of missions!)

Any single person over one weekend ain’t gonna be a “sufficiently large data set”. You should see the runs of “bad luck” you would see when looking at your poker tracker stats over millions of hands (yes I’ve played that much poker). I had “good luck” this weekend and had lots of jackpots (I.e. lots of useless gear I am gonna trash) and I have had weekends of “bad luck”, it all balances out over the long run.

It’s variance.

Raven2318 · January 2020

I was curious, so I just went and did about 10 gear scavenge missions. I got two silver and one gold, although I will say RNG has been unusually kind to me this event. Nothing in the way of good gear, but *shrug*

Adamski316 · January 2020

@Spiked U could have a point about a larger sample size needed to get the desired odds. But having hit another jackpot, as soon as I stopped playing the gear scavenge mode, reaffirms my suspicion, that on the gear scavenge mission, something is off. But than again it could be just a coincidence. Would be nice to see results of other people who played this mode exclusively for couple of days.

Spiked · January 2020

Adamski316 said:
@Spiked U could have a point about a larger sample size needed to get the desired odds. But having hit another jackpot, as soon as I stopped playing the gear scavenge mode, reaffirms my suspicion, that on the gear scavenge mission, something is off. But than again it could be just a coincidence. Would be nice to see results of other people who played this mode exclusively for couple of days.

I boosted and farmed (scavenged) for 24 hrs on Friday in all 3 modes.. I’ve had “a lot” of gold jackpots.. I still consider my sample size way too small but I am confident it ain’t a thing.

ATLAS-Z · January 2020

I've done lots of boosting over the years, during jackpot events, and it does "feel" like gear scavenge yields less jackpots.

I've never logged the data so I can't be sure.

Overall tho, I think @Spiked is right. I've had weekends where I hit zero gold jackpots... And weekends where I've hit 17 of them.

One thing is for sure tho... When you're running gear scavenge it's way more shitty when you don't hit GOLD jackpot because 1000% of the time the consolation prize is trash.

(plethora of super awesome green/brown/gray sexiness)

At least with tomato/XP scavenge your getting something you need.

You're definitely more keenly aware of failure gambling on Gear.

AchillesV · January 2020

Here's a larger dataset for y'all, I recorded it during the 2nd last Jackpot Deluxe event on weekend of Dec 1st
Missions: 533
Gold Jackpots: 28 (5.25%)
Silver Jackpots: 84 (15.76%)

mir · January 2020

I made more than 2000 stars, plus I picked tomatoes. Total: 0 gold, 2 silver. This has long been shit, before the system was better. I speak for myself and another 20 people from my Guild, this can't be a coincidence @Fluxxx , it's sad!

Jackpot problem

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